Discussion
In the largest RCT on the topic to date, with enhanced therapy, we showed a non-significant relative 21.8% lower incidence of ulcer recurrence at a primary foot site compared with usual care alone. While not significant and potentially underpowered due to lower than expected ulcer incidence in the usual care group, the effect may still be attributable to the intervention and is a clinically important one given the burden of diabetic foot disease.2 Our per-protocol analysis showed that adherence to monitoring foot temperatures had no effect on ulcer recurrence (relative 8.6% lower incidence); however, adherence to reducing ambulatory activity after identifying a hotspot did, with a relative 64.9% lower incidence found. Secondary analyses also showed that when ulcer recurrence at only the previous ulcer site (relative 53.9% lower incidence) or at any site on the foot (relative 24.0% lower incidence) was considered as outcome, enhanced therapy was effective over usual care. These results show a variable pattern of at-home foot temperature monitoring in prevention of foot ulcer recurrence.
We found a much smaller effect of enhanced therapy than the three American RCTs that used the same handheld thermometer and tested a similar population in a similar study design: relative 24% vs a 61%–85% lower incidence of ulcers an any foot site compared with usual care.10–12 Our results are in line with the relative 22% lower incidence found in a more recent pilot RCT from Norway,13 and the relative 31% lower incidence per patient-year found in a very recent retrospective pre-post temperature measurement cohort analysis.26 Some study aspects were different, with the American trials being ~15 years older, performed by the same research group in one geographical region, having fewer participants with PAD, renal disease, or long-standing diabetes as risk factors and more with a diverse ethnic background than the European trials, and measuring at other predefined plantar foot sites. Furthermore, one American trial reported an absolute 35% higher adherence (64% vs 29%) to reducing ambulatory activity when hotspots occurred compared with our study.11 As reducing the cumulative stress on the foot is the primary suggested mechanism in ulcer risk reduction and temperature monitoring itself is only conditional to identify a hotspot and come into action,7 8 a higher adherence is expected to result in better outcomes. Our per-protocol analysis supports this. It is unclear to what extent the variation in effect sizes between trials might be explained by above differences. Another RCT on this topic is ongoing,27 and more are needed, to further clarify the preventive effect of at-home foot temperature monitoring.16 17 More specifically, given the benefit of reducing ambulatory activity with a hotspot identified, studies should focus on the specific offloading actions required (including the continuous use of prescribed footwear) and on how to improve adherence to achieve a best possible effect from this intervention.28–30
In secondary analyses, enhanced therapy was showed to be effective over usual care when the previous ulcer site was considered and showed a relative 35% reduction in ulcer incidence (although statistically not-significant) when the exact measurement sites were considered. This demonstrates that the smaller effect found for the primary outcome sites is mainly because of inclusion of adjacent sites. However, one should realize that only 32% of ulcers developed at a previous ulcer site, and other studies find even lower percentages.21 31 and only 58% of ulcers developed at a measurement site, limiting thermometry when only these sites are targeted. With a more liberal choice of ulcer at any foot site, the intervention was also effective over usual care. This may suggest a surrogate function of foot thermometry, increasing the participant’s attention to the foot and the chance of picking up an early ulcer sign anywhere on the foot and acting on that. While previously a twice-per-day structured self-examination of the foot using a mirror to increase awareness did not show any benefit,11 our effect found may be from being guided by quantitative measurements rather than just looking. Enhanced therapy was also effective over usual care for those participants enrolled in the community hospitals, but not for those enrolled in the UMCs or podiatry practices. Generally in the Netherlands, the most complex patients at highest risk are seen in UMCs and the least complex at lowest risk in the podiatry practices and we speculate that a single intervention may not differentiate adequately between study groups in these two settings; the optimum effect may be for those “medium” high-risk patients enrolled in community hospitals.4 Overall, these secondary analyses suggest that a benefit of the intervention may be dependent on outcome sites chosen, restricted to selected participants, and through a surrogate means of improving self-care. In support of this, a third of our study participants never identified a hotspot and would therefore not benefit from this intervention. Future studies should carefully consider participants and outcome sites and investigate above hypotheses so as to make targeted provision of this intervention possible4 and limit overtreatment and unnecessary patient burden. Furthermore, studies should assess the cost-effectiveness of this intervention (ongoing analysis of the current trial data) and the intervention as part of a multimodal treatment plan to move towards more personalized preventative care in diabetic foot disease (a new project we are starting).4
Adherence to monitoring foot temperatures was comparable to that found with other self-management strategies in diabetes,32 but disappointingly low for acting when hotspots occurred, while the working mechanism of the intervention is in this action. In explaining this, first, it may be that our instructions for reducing activity level were insufficiently clear, not clearly enough presented in the log or not memorized by the participant by the time a hotspot occurred, which could be months after study entry. Second, the complexity and burden of daily measuring and logging foot temperature in order for an event not to occur (ie, the “prevention paradox”,4 may require too much effort of the participant to continue monitoring.4 33 Third, people with foot disease may develop the sense that they have little influence whatsoever on the outcome of foot ulceration, creating an otiose effort to control this.34 Finally, participants may have judged that a hotspot found was not serious enough to require any action, which also relates to the problem of false-positive outcomes for this intervention.14 These aspects should be considered in the development of more user-friendly and effective technologies and methods for this purpose, which alarms users or their healthcare providers when a hotspot is found26 and can provide specific instructions and encouragement for subsequent action to offload the foot, increasing patient engagement and benefit.
Several limitations apply. First, while ulcer recurrence incidence for enhanced therapy was as estimated, for usual care it was lower than estimated in the sample size calculation. This reduces the effect size and the statistical power in finding a potentially present effect of the intervention. Second, with handheld thermometry, participants may not have measured exactly at the predefined sites. Third, many different options for outcome sites could be considered for analysis, which affected the interpretation of results, as our analyses showed. While we lacked evidence to support choosing sites adjacent to the measurement site as the primary outcome sites, we considered that choosing only the measurement site would limit validity, as many ulcers may occur elsewhere, as would, for the same reason, choosing any foot site. Handheld devices with automated/semiautomated measurement reporting increase efficiency and would allow assessing more locations.35 Platform systems also increase usability and foot coverage and can automatically report measurement data, but are limited to measuring only the surface that is in contact with the platform (ie, mostly only part of the plantar foot surface).14 26 Temperature sensors in socks can overcome this limitation, but are also confined to a limited number of measurement sites.36 Any choice made regarding outcome site and measurement method is to a certain extent flawed, and therefore reporting for different options for outcome sites is important. Fourth, we subjectively obtained adherence to activity reduction when a hotspot was found, based on self-report. Finally, given the effect on the study findings of this adherence, our instruction to participants at baseline and repetition thereof in text messages twice a week during follow-up may have been too complex, infrequent, or ineffective.33 Data from a recent trial confirm that text and voice reminders in using thermometry do not affect adherence and outcome.37 This may be inherent to this treatment approach and addresses an important barrier to implementation.
In conclusion, at-home daily foot temperature monitoring in addition to usual care does not significantly reduce incidence of foot ulcer recurrence at or adjacent to measurement sites compared with usual care alone in people with diabetes, peripheral neuropathy, and a foot ulcer history or Charcot foot. Being adherent to monitoring foot temperature does not mitigate this effect, but when participants reduce their activity when a hotspot is identified, the intervention is effective over usual care. Also, when only ulcers at the previous ulcer site or ulcers at any foot site (including non-measurement sites) are considered, the intervention is effective over usual care. Thus, the effect of at-home foot temperature monitoring in preventing ulcer recurrence is not as straightforward as previously found and may be limited to those adherent to change in behavior when guided by temperature measurement, to specific foot sites that should be targeted, or as method to increase awareness for the foot. And although the intervention has potential, the findings highlight that it is not a solution on its own and a multimodal treatment approach is required to substantially and continuously reduce risk of ulcer recurrence in people with diabetes.