RT Journal Article
SR Electronic
T1 Long-term BMI change trajectories in Chinese adults and its association with the hazard of type 2 diabetes: evidence from a 20-year China Health and Nutrition Survey
JF BMJ Open Diabetes Research & Care
JO BMJ Open Diab Res Care
FD American Diabetes Association
SP e000879
DO 10.1136/bmjdrc-2019-000879
VO 8
IS 1
A1 Baibing Mi
A1 Chenlu Wu
A1 Xiangyu Gao
A1 Wentao Wu
A1 Jiaoyang Du
A1 Yaling Zhao
A1 Duolao Wang
A1 Shaonong Dang
A1 Hong Yan
YR 2020
UL http://drc.bmj.com/content/8/1/e000879.abstract
AB Introduction To investigate the relationship between long-term change trajectory in body mass index (BMI) and the hazard of type 2 diabetes among Chinese adults.Research design and methods Data were obtained from the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS). Type 2 diabetes was reported by participants themselves in each survey wave. The duration of follow-up was defined as the period from the first visit to the first time self-reported type 2 diabetes, death, or other loss to follow-up from CHNS. The patterns of change trajectories in BMI were derived by latent class trajectory analysis method. The Fine and Gray regression model was used to estimate HRs with corresponding 95% CIs for type 2 diabetes.Results Four patterns of the trajectories of change in BMI were identified among Chinese adults, 42.7% of participants had stable BMI change, 40.8% for moderate BMI gain, 8.9% for substantial BMI gain and 7.7% for weight loss. During the follow-up with mean 11.2 years (158 637 person-years contributed by 14 185 participants), 498 people with type 2 diabetes (3.7%) occurred. Risk of type 2 diabetes was increased by 47% among people who gained BMI more substantially and rapidly (HR: 1.47, 95% CI 1.08 to 2.02, p=0.016) and increased by 20% among those in people with the moderate BMI gain (HR: 1.20, 95% CI 0.98 to 1.48, p=0.078), compared with those with stable BMI change.Conclusions Long-term substantial gain of BMI was significantly associated with an increased risk of type 2 diabetes in the Chinese adults.