TY - JOUR T1 - Time trends in the incidence of clinically diagnosed type 2 diabetes and pre-diabetes in the UK 2009–2018: a retrospective cohort study JF - BMJ Open Diabetes Research & Care JO - BMJ Open Diab Res Care DO - 10.1136/bmjdrc-2020-001989 VL - 9 IS - 1 SP - e001989 AU - Kingshuk Pal AU - Laura Horsfall AU - Manuj Sharma AU - Irwin Nazareth AU - Irene Petersen Y1 - 2021/03/01 UR - http://drc.bmj.com/content/9/1/e001989.abstract N2 - Introduction To describe recent trends in the incidence of clinically diagnosed type 2 diabetes and pre-diabetes in people seen in UK general practice.Research design and methods A retrospective cohort study using IQVIA Medical Research Data looking at people newly diagnosed with type 2 diabetes and pre-diabetes through primary care registers in the UK between 1 January 2009 and 31 December 2018.Results A cohort of 426 717 people were clinically diagnosed with type 2 diabetes and 418 656 people met the criteria for a diagnosis of pre-diabetes in that time period. The incidence of clinically diagnosed type 2 diabetes per 1000 person years at risk (PYAR) in men decreased from a peak of 5.06 per 1000 PYAR (95% CI 4.97 to 5.15) in 2013 to 3.56 per 1000 PYAR (95% CI 3.46 to 3.66) by 2018. For women, the incidence of clinically diagnosed type 2 diabetes per 1000 PYAR decreased from 4.45 (95% CI 4.37 to 4.54) in 2013 to 2.85 (2.76 to 2.93) in 2018. The incidence rate of pre-diabetes tripled by the end of the same study period in men and women.Conclusions Between 2009 and 2018, the incidence rate of new clinical diagnoses of type 2 diabetes recorded in a UK primary care database decreased by a third from its peak in 2013–2014, while the incidence of pre-diabetes has tripled. The implications of this on timely treatment, complication rates and mortality need further longer term exploration.Data are available on reasonable request. Data have been extracted from pseudonymised routinely collected UK primary care records from the IQVIA Medical Research-UK data. ER -