CARDIA (10 years) | CARDIA-10 (10 years) | ARIC (9 years) | CHS (7 years) | |

ORs | ||||

Age group† | 1.320 | 0.981 | 0.898 | 0.911 |

Black (=1) | 1.174*** | 1.554** | 1.898*** | 1.772 |

Male (=1) | 0.292*** | 0.650** | 0.795** | 1.104 |

Parental history (=1) | 1.736*** | 2.219*** | 1.670*** | 1.304 |

SBP (mm Hg) | 0.995 | 1.020*** | 1.006** | 1.005** |

Smoker (=1) | 0.918 | 0.943 | 1.230** | 1.169 |

BMI | 1.059*** | 1.079*** | 1.091*** | 1.055** |

FPG (mg/dL) | 1.034*** | 1.080*** | 1.116*** | 1.114*** |

HDL (mg/dL) | 0.990 | 0.980** | 0.975*** | 0.986 |

Triglycerides (mg/dL) | 1.005 | 1.002* | 1.002*** | 1.004*** |

Observations | 4039 | 2813 | 8875 | 3094 |

Diagnostic statistics | ||||

Diabetes (N) | 171 | 188 | 836 | 150 |

AUROC (C.I.) | 0.75 (0.71–0.78) | 0.85 (0.82–0.88) | 0.85 (0.84–0.86) | 0.81 (0.77–0.85) |

PPV | 62.04% | 73.47% | 56.02% | 50.00% |

NPV | 57.26% | 94.50% | 91.88% | 95.24% |

Cumulative probability | 4.23% | 6.68% | 9.42% | 4.85% |

1-year probability‡ | 0.44% | 0.88% | 1.13% | 0.53% |

*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1

†For CARDIA age (25–30)==1, CARDIA-10 age (35–40)==1, ARIC age (55–64)==1, CHS age (75+)==1.

‡Supplementary appendix A-6 shows how to compute annual probabilities using the Logit model.

T represents the maximum time in the sample. For CARDIA and CARDIA-10, T=10 years. For ARIC, T=9; and for CHD, T=7.

For PPV and NPV the cut-off used is 5.

Supplementary appendix A-5b shows non-exponentiated coefficients.

BMI=(weight in kg)/(height in meters)

^{2}.PPV, p×sensitivity/(p×sensitivity+(1 p)(1−specificity)), where p is the prevalence.

NPV, specificity×(1 p)/(p×(1−sensitivity)+(1 p)×specificity).

ARIC, Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities; AUROC, area under the receiver-operating curve; CARDIA, Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults; CHS, Cardiovascular Heart Study; BMI, body mass index; FPG, fasting plasma glucose; HDL, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol; NPV, negative predictive value; PPV, positive predictive value; SBP, systolic blood pressure.