Table 3

ORs and diagnostic accuracy for type 2 diabetes over T years—enhanced model

CARDIA (10 years)CARDIA-10 (10 years)ARIC (9 years)CHS (7 years)
 Age group†1.3200.9810.8980.911
 Black (=1)1.174***1.554**1.898***1.772
 Male (=1)0.292***0.650**0.795**1.104
 Parental history (=1)1.736***2.219***1.670***1.304
 SBP (mm Hg)0.9951.020***1.006**1.005**
 Smoker (=1)0.9180.9431.230**1.169
 FPG (mg/dL)1.034***1.080***1.116***1.114***
 HDL (mg/dL)0.9900.980**0.975***0.986
 Triglycerides (mg/dL)1.0051.002*1.002***1.004***
 Observations 4039 2813 8875 3094
Diagnostic statistics
Diabetes (N) 171 188 836 150
 AUROC (C.I.)0.75 (0.71–0.78)0.85 (0.82–0.88)0.85 (0.84–0.86)0.81 (0.77–0.85)
 Cumulative probability4.23%6.68%9.42%4.85%
 1-year probability‡0.44%0.88%1.13%0.53%
  • *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1

  • †For CARDIA age (25–30)==1, CARDIA-10 age (35–40)==1, ARIC age (55–64)==1, CHS age (75+)==1.

  • Supplementary appendix A-6 shows how to compute annual probabilities using the Logit model.

  • T represents the maximum time in the sample. For CARDIA and CARDIA-10, T=10 years. For ARIC, T=9; and for CHD, T=7.

  • For PPV and NPV the cut-off used is 5.

  • Supplementary appendix A-5b shows non-exponentiated coefficients.

  • BMI=(weight in kg)/(height in meters)2.

  • PPV, p×sensitivity/(p×sensitivity+(1 p)(1−specificity)), where p is the prevalence.

  • NPV, specificity×(1 p)/(p×(1−sensitivity)+(1 p)×specificity).

  • ARIC, Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities; AUROC, area under the receiver-operating curve; CARDIA, Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults; CHS, Cardiovascular Heart Study; BMI, body mass index; FPG, fasting plasma glucose; HDL, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol; NPV, negative predictive value; PPV, positive predictive value; SBP, systolic blood pressure.