Annual predicted values from constrained regressions across simple and enhanced models
| Test dataset | Source of constrained coefficients | AUROC (calibrated constant) | 1-year probability (calibrated constant) (%) |
| CARDIA simple | CARDIA | 0.72 (0.69–0.76) | 0.44 |
| CARDIA-10 | 0.63 (0.58–0.68) | 0.45 | |
| ARIC | 0.61 (0.56–0.66) | 0.49 | |
| CHS | 0.60 (0.55–0.65) | 0.63 | |
| CARDIA-10 simple | CARDIA-10 | 0.79 (0.76–0.83) | 0.73 |
| CARDIA | 0.74 (0.70–0.77) | 0.72 | |
| ARIC | 0.78 (0.74–0.82) | 0.80 | |
| CHS | 0.78 (0.74–0.81) | 1.03 | |
| ARIC simple | ARIC | 0.75 (0.73–0.77) | 1.04 |
| CARDIA | 0.73 (0.72–0.75) | 1.01 | |
| CARDIA-10 | 0.75 (0.73–0.76) | 1.05 | |
| CHS | 0.75 (0.73–0.76) | 1.47 | |
| CHS simple | CHS | 0.69 (0.65–0.73) | 0.72 |
| CARDIA | 0.59 (0.54–0.63) | 0.50 | |
| CARDIA-10 | 0.69 (0.64–0.73) | 0.50 | |
| ARIC | 0.69 (0.65–0.73) | 0.56 | |
| CARDIA enhanced | CARDIA | 0.75 (0.71–0.78) | 0.44 |
| CARDIA-10 | 0.66 (0.61–0.70) | 0.46 | |
| ARIC | 0.65 (0.60–0.70) | 0.53 | |
| CHS | 0.62 (0.57–0.67) | 0.66 | |
| CARDIA- 10 enhanced | CARDIA-10 | 0.85 (0.82–0.88) | 0.88 |
| CARDIA | 0.83 (0.80–0.86) | 0.92 | |
| ARIC | 0.84 (0.81–0.87) | 0.97 | |
| CHS | 0.83 (0.80–0.86) | 1.20 | |
| ARIC enhanced | ARIC | 0.85 (0.84–0.86) | 1.13 |
| CARDIA | 0.84 (0.82–0.85) | 1.10 | |
| CARDIA-10 | 0.85 (0.83–0.86) | 1.14 | |
| CHS | 0.85 (0.83–0.86) | 1.56 | |
| CHS enhanced | CHS | 0.81 (0.77–0.85) | 0.75 |
| CARDIA | 0.77 (0.73–0.82) | 0.53 | |
| CARDIA-10 | 0.81 (0.77–0.85) | 0.53 | |
| ARIC | 0.81 (0.77–0.85) | 0.59 |