ORs and diagnostic accuracy for type 2 diabetes over T years—simple model
| CARDIA (10 years) | CARDIA-10 (10 years) | ARIC (9 years) | CHS (7 years) | |
| ORs | ||||
| Age group† | 1.343* | 1.242 | 1.078 | 0.848 |
| Black (=1) | 0.947 | 1.408* | 1.323*** | 1.265 |
| Male (=1) | 0.384*** | 1.380* | 1.575*** | 1.512** |
| BMI | 1.087*** | 1.143*** | 1.138*** | 1.144*** |
| Parental history (=1) | 1.661*** | 2.357*** | 1.871*** | 1.324 |
| Smoker (=1) | 0.878 | 0.987 | 1.357*** | 1.198 |
| High SBP (>140 mm Hg=1) | 3.846** | 1.094 | 1.472*** | 1.887*** |
| High cholesterol (>240 mg/dL=1) | 1.539 | 1.388* | 1.002 | 0.948 |
| Observations | 4039 | 2813 | 8875 | 3094 |
| Diabetes (N) | 171 | 188 | 836 | 150 |
| Diagnostic statistics | ||||
| AUROC (95% CI) | 0.72 (0.69–0.76) | 0.79 (0.76–0.83) | 0.75 (0.73–0.77) | 0.69 (0.65–0.73) |
| PPV | 50.00% | 31.25% | 34.92% | 0.00% |
| NPV | 95.79% | 93.46% | 90.76% | 95.15% |
| Cumulative probability | 4.23% | 6.68% | 9.42% | 4.85% |
| 1-year probability‡ | 0.44% | 0.73% | 1.04% | 0.53% |
*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
†For CARDIA age (25–30)==1, CARDIA-10 age (35–40)=1, ARIC age (55–64)==1, CHS age (75+)==1.
‡Supplementary appendix A-6 shows how to compute annual probabilities using the Logit model.
T represents the maximum time in the sample. For CARDIA and CARDIA-10, T=10 years. For ARIC, T=9; and for CHD, T=7.
For PPV and NPV the cut-off used is 5.
Supplementary appendix A-5a shows non-exponentiated coefficients.
BMI=(weight in kg)/(height in meters)2.
PPV, p×sensitivity/(p×sensitivity+(1 p)(1−specificity)), where p is the prevalence.
NPV, specificity×(1 p)/(p×(1−sensitivity)+(1 p)×specificity).
ARIC, Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities; AUROC, area under the receiver-operating curve; CARDIA, Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults; CHS, Cardiovascular Heart Study; BMI, body mass index; NPV, negative predictive value; PPV, positive predictive value; SBP, systolic blood pressure.