Adjusted rates and HRs for diabetes by baseline total physical activity and sedentary leisure-time
| No. of cases | Model 1 | Model 2* | Model 3† | Model 4‡ | |||||
| Rate§ | HR (95% CI) per 1000 | Rate | HR (95% CI) per 1000 | Rate | HR (95% CI) per 1000 | Rate | HR (95% CI) per 1000 | ||
| Baseline total physical activity (MET-h/day) | |||||||||
| <9.40 | 3168 | 3.73 | 1.00 (0.96 to 1.04) | 3.61 | 1.00 (0.96 to 1.04) | 3.47 | 1.00 (0.96 to 1.04) | 3.42 | 1.00 (0.96 to 1.04) |
| 9.40–14.99 | 3122 | 3.51 | 0.94 (0.91 to 0.98) | 3.46 | 0.96 (0.92 to 0.99) | 3.39 | 0.98 (0.94 to 1.01) | 3.38 | 0.99 (0.95 to 1.02) |
| 15.00–22.81 | 3083 | 3.27 | 0.88 (0.85 to 0.91) | 3.29 | 0.91 (0.88 to 0.94) | 3.32 | 0.96 (0.92 to 0.99) | 3.33 | 0.97 (0.94 to 1.01) |
| 22.82–33.99 | 2755 | 3.14 | 0.84 (0.81 to 0.88) | 3.20 | 0.89 (0.85 to 0.92) | 3.30 | 0.95 (0.91 to 0.99) | 3.33 | 0.97 (0.93 to 1.01) |
| 34.00+ | 2812 | 2.95 | 0.79 (0.76 to 0.82) | 3.04 | 0.84 (0.81 to 0.88) | 3.16 | 0.91 (0.87 to 0.95) | 3.18 | 0.93 (0.89 to 0.97) |
| Trend | p<0.0001 | p<0.0001 | p=0.0010 | p=0.0142 | |||||
| Per 4 MET-h/day increase | 14 940 | 0.98 (0.97 to 0.98) | 0.98 (0.98 to 0.99) | 0.99 (0.99 to 1.00) | 0.99 (0.99 to 1.00) | ||||
| Per 1 SD (13.8 MET-h/day) increase | 14 940 | 14 9400.93 (0.91 to 0.95) | 0.95 (0.93 to 0.97) | 0.97 (0.96 to 0.99) | 0.98 (0.96 to 1.00) | ||||
| Usual total physical activity | |||||||||
| Per 4 usual MET-h/day increase | 14 940 | 0.96 (0.95 to 0.97) | 0.97 (0.96 to 0.98) | 0.99 (0.97 to 1.00) | 0.99 (0.98 to 1.00) | ||||
| Per 1 SD (13.8 MET-h/day) increase | 14 940 | 0.87 (0.83 to 0.90) | 0.90 (0.87 to 0.94) | 0.95 (0.92 to 0.99) | 0.96 (0.93 to 1.00) | ||||
| Baseline sedentary leisure-time (hour/day) | |||||||||
| <1.5 | 2979 | 3.08 | 1.00 (0.96 to 1.04) | 3.12 | 1.00 (0.96 to 1.04) | 3.26 | 1.00 (0.96 to 1.04) | 3.29 | 1.00 (0.96 to 1.04) |
| 1.5–2.4 | 3535 | 3.11 | 1.01 (0.98 to 1.05) | 3.14 | 1.01 (0.97 to 1.04) | 3.21 | 0.99 (0.95 to 1.02) | 3.23 | 0.98 (0.95 to 1.01) |
| 2.5–3.4 | 3823 | 3.31 | 1.08 (1.04 to 1.11) | 3.32 | 1.06 (1.03 to 1.10) | 3.31 | 1.02 (0.98 to 1.05) | 3.30 | 1.00 (0.97 to 1.03) |
| 3.5–4.4 | 2402 | 3.51 | 1.14 (1.09 to 1.19) | 3.50 | 1.12 (1.08 to 1.17) | 3.42 | 1.05 (1.01 to 1.09) | 3.40 | 1.03 (0.99 to 1.08) |
| 4.5+ | 2201 | 3.89 | 1.26 (1.21 to 1.32) | 3.78 | 1.21 (1.16 to 1.27) | 3.58 | 1.10 (1.05 to 1.15) | 3.54 | 1.08 (1.03 to 1.13) |
| Trend | P<0.0001 | P<0.0001 | P=0.0002 | P=0.0032 | |||||
| Per 1 hour/day increase | 14 940 | 1.05 (1.04 to 1.06) | 1.04 (1.03 to 1.05) | 1.02 (1.01 to 1.03) | 1.02 (1.00 to 1.03) | ||||
| Per 1 SD (1.5 hour/day) increase | 14 940 | 1.07 (1.06 to 1.09) | 1.06 (1.04 to 1.08) | 1.03 (1.01 to 1.05) | 1.02 (1.01 to 1.04) | ||||
| Usual sedentary leisure-time | |||||||||
| Per 1 usual hour/day increase | 14 940 | 1.16 (1.12 to 1.20) | 1.13 (1.09 to 1.17) | 1.06 (1.02 to 1.10) | 1.05 (1.01 to 1.09) | ||||
| Per 1 SD (1.5 hour/day) increase | 14 940 | 1.25 (1.19 to 1.31) | 1.20 (1.13 to 1.26) | 1.09 (1.04 to 1.15) | 1.07 (1.02 to 1.13) | ||||
All analyses were stratified by age-at-risk, region and sex.
*Model 2 was additionally, on top of model 1, adjusted for household income, education, smoking, alcohol, fresh fruit consumption, self-rated health, family history of diabetes and sedentary leisure-time or physical activity as appropriate.
†Model 3 was additionally, on top of model 2, adjusted for BMI status (<25, 25-29, 30+kg/m2).
‡Model 4 was additionaly, on top of model 3, adjusted for BMI.
§ Rates are estimated from model hazard ratios.
MET-h/day, metabolic equivalents of task hours per day.