Table 3

Characteristics of currently used, and mathematically derived, prediabetes cut-points for predicting 5-year diabetes risk

Cut-pointArea under the curveSensitivity (%)Specificity (%)Positive predicted value (%)Negative predicted value (%)Baseline prediabetes prevalence (%)Age-adjsuted and sex-adjusted HRPopulation attributable fraction (%)
FPG (mmol/L)
 Derived from ROC5.6*0.706 (0.697 to 0.715)64.1 (62.3 to 65.9)77.0 (76.7 to 77.3)9.8 (9.4 to 10.2)98.2 (98.1 to 98.3)24.65.2451.1
 WHO-FPG6.1*0.665 (0.656 to 0.674)39.1 (37.3 to 41.0)93.8 (93.7 to 94.0)19.9 (18.8 to 20.9)97.5 (97.4 to 97.6)7.47.5032.5
 ADA-FPG5.6*0.706 (0.697 to 0.715)64.1 (62.3 to 65.9)77.0 (76.7 to 77.3)9.8 (9.4 to 10.2)98.2 (98.1 to 98.3)24.65.2451.1
 Derived from spline5.1*0.641 (0.634 to 0.648)83.9 (82.4 to 85.2)44.3 (44.0 to 44.7)5.6 (5.3 to 5.8)98.6 (98.5 to 98.7)56.73.8461.7
2hPG (mmol/L)
 Derived from ROC7.0*0.715 (0.695 to 0.734)62.0 (58.1 to 65.9)80.9 (80.2 to 81.6)13.5 (12.2 to 14.8)97.8 (97.5 to 98.1)21.14.0038.8
 WHO/ADA-2hPG7.8*0.700 (0.680 to 0.720)50.2 (46.2 to 54.3)89.8 (89.2 to 90.3)19.0 (17.2 to 21.0)97.4 (97.1 to 97.7)12.14.6330.5
HbA1c (%)
 Derived from ROC5.60.762 (0.747 to 0.777)72.8 (69.8 to 75.7)79.6 (79.1 to 80.2)14.3 (13.3 to 15.4)98.4 (98.2 to 98.6)22.710.1267.4
 ADA-HbA1c5.70.748 (0.732 to 0.764)64.7 (61.5 to 67.9)85.0 (84.4 to 85.5)16.7 (15.5 to 18.0)98.1 (97.9 to 98.3)17.39.7660.2
 IEC-HbA1c6.00.679 (0.663 to 0.695)40.4 (37.2 to 43.8)95.4 (95.0 to 95.7)28.9 (26.4 to 31.5)97.2 (96.9 to 97.4)6.210.7237.6
 Derived from spline5.00.590 (0.582 to 0.598)94.9 (93.3 to 96.3)23.0 (22.4 to 23.6)5.44 (5.09 to 5.81)99.0 (98.6 to 99.3)77.84.7574.5
  • *To convert glucose from mmol/L to mg/dL, divide value by 0.0555.

  • ADA, American Diabetes Association; FPG, fasting plasma glucose; HbA1c, glycated hemoglobin; 2hPG, 2-hour postload plasma glucose; IEC, International Expert Committee.