Baseline characteristics of the analyzed population
| Characteristics | Total n=673 | Incident type 2 diabetes | Incident (pre)diabetes | ||||
| No n=586 | Yes n=68 | P value* | No n=372 | Yes n=130 | P value* | ||
| Variables measured at baseline (F4) | |||||||
| Age (years)† | 60.6±5.6 | 60.3±5.5 | 63.1±5.3 | <0.001 | 59.9±5.6 | 61.0±5.2 | 0.030 |
| Sex male, n (%) | 328 (48.7) | 282 (48.1) | 41 (60.3) | 0.076 | 154 (41.4) | 78 (60.0) | <0.001 |
| Height (cm)† | 168.1±8.9 | 168.2±8.9 | 168.3±8.8 | 0.778 | 167.8±8.9 | 168.3±8.4 | 0.339 |
| Waist circumference (cm)† | 94.2±13.3 | 93.5±13.3 | 102.1±11.2 | <0.001 | 90.6±11.7 | 97.7±11.1 | <0.001 |
| Triglycerides (mmol/L)‡ | 1.26 (1.02) | 1.23 (1.05) | 1.63 (1.15) | <0.001 | 1.13 (1.07) | 1.35 (1.12) | 0.001 |
| Total cholesterol/HDL† | 4.15±1.1 | 4.11±1.12 | 4.70±1.17 | <0.001 | 3.92±1.08 | 4.44±1.14 | <0.001 |
| Hypertension, n (%) | 266 (39.5) | 221 (37.7) | 40 (58.8) | 0.001 | 114 (30.6) | 63 (48.5) | <0.001 |
| Smoking status, n (%) | 0.103 | 0.536 | |||||
| Never | 295 (43.8) | 248 (42.3) | 38 (55.9) | 156 (41.9) | 60 (46.2) | ||
| Former | 287 (42.7) | 258 (44) | 23 (33.8) | 164 (44.1) | 50 (38.5) | ||
| Current | 91 (13.5) | 80 (13.7) | 7 (10.3) | 52 (14.0) | 20 (15.4) | ||
| Alcohol intake, n (%) | 0.976 | 0.798 | |||||
| 0 g/day | 185 (27.5) | 159 (27.1) | 19 (27.9) | 103 (27.7) | 40 (30.8) | ||
| Men 0.1–39.9 g/day Women 0.1–19.9 g/day | 344 (51.1) | 300 (51.2) | 35 (51.5) | 192 (51.6) | 64 (49.2) | ||
| Men ≥40 g/day Women ≥20 g/day | 144 (21.4) | 127 (21.7) | 14 (20.6) | 77 (20.7) | 26 (20.0) | ||
| Physical activity, n (%) | 0.114 | 0.201 | |||||
| No activity | 170 (25.3) | 143 (24.4) | 21 (30.9) | 83 (22.3) | 32 (24.6) | ||
| Low activity | 78 (11.6) | 65 (11.1) | 10 (14.7) | 35 (9.4) | 19 (14.6) | ||
| Moderate activity | 234 (34.8) | 203 (34.6) | 26 (38.2) | 133 (35.8) | 47 (36.2) | ||
| High activity | 191 (28.4) | 175 (29.9) | 11 (16.2) | 121 (32.5) | 32 (24.6) | ||
| Education ≤10 years, n (%) | 319 (47.4) | 270 (46.1) | 41 (60.3) | 0.036 | 166 (44.6) | 67 (51.5) | 0.208 |
| High-sensitivity C reactive protein (mg/L)‡ | 1.20 (1.04) | 1.16 (1.10) | 1.77 (1.32) | 0.002 | 0.99 (1.12) | 1.53 (1.23) | <0.001 |
| Parental history of diabetes, n (%) | 0.104 | 0.003 | |||||
| No parent | 368 (54.7) | 329 (56.1) | 28 (41.2) | 228 (61.3) | 56 (43.1) | ||
| Unknown | 134 (19.9) | 113 (19.3) | 16 (23.5) | 60 (16.1) | 36 (27.7) | ||
| One parent | 155 (23.0) | 131 (22.4) | 21 (30.9) | 76 (20.4) | 34 (26.2) | ||
| Both parents | 16 (2.4) | 13 (2.2) | 3 (4.4) | 8 (2.2) | 4 (3.1) | ||
| MBA† | 776±467 | 758±459 | 959±483 | <0.001 | 647±426 | 949±468 | <0.001 |
| RHI† | 2.13±0.67 | 2.17±0.68 | 1.89±0.55 | <0.001 | 2.23±0.70 | 2.05±0.63 | 0.005 |
| Fasting glucose (mmol/L)† | 5.3±0.52 | 5.3±0.47 | 5.9±0.55 | <0.001 | 5.1±0.39 | 5.4±0.37 | <0.001 |
| Fasting insulin (µU/mL)‡ | 9.2 (1.02) | 8.9 (1.02) | 13.1 (1.07) | <0.001 | 8.0 (1.02) | 10.3 (1.04) | <0.001 |
| 2-hour glucose (mmol/L)† | 6.2±1.69 | 6.0±1.54 | 8.1±1.77 | <0.001 | 5.4±1.13 | 6.3±1.0 | <0.001 |
| HOMA-IR‡ | 2.16 (1.02) | 2.06 (1.02) | 3.41 (1.07) | <0.001 | 1.82 (1.03) | 2.46 (1.04) | <0.001 |
| HOMA-beta‡ | 105 (1.02) | 104 (1.02) | 114 (1.07) | 0.185 | 102 (1.02) | 110 (1.04) | 0.102 |
| HbA1c (mmol/mol)† | 36.5±3.53 | 36.0±3.34 | 39.6±3.38 | <0.001 | 35.4±3.19 | 37.2±3.13 | <0.001 |
| HbA1c (%)† | 5.5±0.32 | 5.4±0.29 | 5.8±0.32 | <0.001 | 5.4±0.28 | 5.5±0.28 | <0.001 |
| Variables measured at follow-up (FF4) | |||||||
| Fasting glucose (mmol/L)† | 5.7±0.81§ | 5.5±0.54 | 6.8±1.52 | <0.001 | 5.3±0.40 | 6.0±0.58 | <0.001 |
| Fasting insulin (µU/mL)‡ | 10.3 (1.02)§ | 9.9 (1.05)¶ | 14.9 (1.17) | <0.001 | 8.7 (1.05) | 13.4 (1.12) | <0.001 |
| 2-hour glucose (mmol/L)† | 6.7±2.41** | 6.3±1.73 | 12.3±3.44†† | <0.001 | 5.4±1.09 | 8.5±1.87‡‡ | <0.001 |
| HOMA-IR‡ | 2.53 (1.02)§§ | 2.41 (1.05)¶ | 4.54 (1.20)¶¶ | <0.001 | 2.01 (1.07) | 3.54 (1.12)*** | <0.001 |
| HOMA-beta‡ | 101 (1.02)§§ | 102 (1.05)¶ | 99 (1.20)¶¶ | 0.862 | 100 (1.05) | 109 (1.12)*** | 0.117 |
| HbA1c (mmol/mol)† | 37.1±4.81††† | 36.4±3.67 | 42.8±8.2‡‡‡ | <0.001 | 35.9±3.16 | 37.9±4.22 | <0.001 |
| HbA1c (%)† | 5.6±0.44††† | 5.5±0.34 | 6.1±0.75‡‡‡ | <0.001 | 5.4±0.29 | 5.6±0.39 | <0.001 |
*For differences between groups: Kruskal-Wallis test for continuous variables; χ² test for categorical variables.
†Continuous variables are presented as arithmetic mean±SD.
‡Natural logarithmic transformed variables are presented as geometric mean (antilog of SE).
§n=671.
¶n=585.
**n=628.
††n=42.
‡‡n=123.
§§n=653.
¶¶n=54.
***n=127.
†††n=672.
‡‡‡n=67.
HbA1c, hemoglobin A1c; HDL, high-density lipoprotein; HOMA-beta, homoeostasis model assessment of beta-cell function; HOMA-IR, homoeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance; MBA, mean baseline amplitude; RHI, reactive hyperemia index.