Table 2

Predicted number of prevalent patients with diabetes and prevalence 2017–2040, using six different prediction scenarios for incidence rates: naive prediction from a splines-based APC model, attenuation with halving of rate change per 5 years, fixing rates at the level of 1 January 2017 and an increase of incidence of 2%, 4% and 6% per year (mortality rate changes are also attenuated by a halving of rate change per 5 years in all scenarios)

DateAPC-naiveAttenuation0%/yearFixed annual incidence increase6%/year
2%/year4%/year
1 JanN%N%N%N%N%N%
M
 2018163 0465.7163 0315.7162 6955.6162 9965.7163 0145.7163 0315.7
 2019169 9215.9169 7875.9168 4265.8169 5575.9169 7135.9169 8715.9
 2020177 5046.1177 0386.1174 0296.0176 4216.1176 9566.1177 5046.1
 2025227 1557.6217 9097.3199 7186.7212 7357.1219 5197.4226 9537.6
 2030299 7459.9260 1878.6220 6337.3249 8158.2270 7918.9295 2619.7
 2035400 95613.0298 2979.7236 4777.7286 5899.3330 34310.7384 35312.5
 2040537 95417.2330 61110.6248 3588.0323 69510.4399 27912.8497 10615.9
W
 2018131 4424.5131 4294.5131 1384.5131 3974.5131 4104.5131 4234.5
 2019136 4924.7136 3754.7135 1874.6136 1564.7136 2754.7136 3964.7
 2020142 1774.8141 7634.8139 1264.7141 1604.8141 5714.8141 9924.8
 2025181 7876.1173 2365.8156 9615.2167 7885.6173 0545.8178 8336.0
 2030245 1248.0207 1746.8171 2295.6195 2386.4211 6756.9230 9557.6
 2035340 13411.0238 4817.7181 7365.9222 6617.2257 2898.3300 5849.7
 2040475 71415.2265 0698.5189 2256.0250 3998.0310 8969.9391 13412.5
M+W
 2018294 4895.1294 4605.1293 8335.1294 3935.1294 4245.1294 4555.1
 2019306 4145.3306 1625.3303 6135.2305 7135.3305 9895.3306 2675.3
 2020319 6805.5318 8015.5313 1565.4317 5815.4318 5275.5319 4965.5
 2025408 9426.8391 1456.5356 6796.0380 5236.4392 5736.6405 7866.8
 2030544 8698.9467 3627.7391 8626.4445 0537.3482 4667.9526 2178.6
 2035741 09012.0536 7788.7418 2136.8509 2508.2587 6339.5684 93611.1
 20401 013 66816.2595 6809.5437 5827.0574 0949.2710 17511.4888 24014.2
  • The boldface numbers are the predictions we report as the most reliable and used in figure 2. It should be noted that figures beyond 2030 are very uncertain.

  • APC, age–period–cohort; M, men; W, women.