Table 2

Risk of type 2 diabetes incidence during a 15-year follow-up between categories of selected variables

	n of cases (n=417)	N at risk (n=4270)	%	HR*	95% CI
Sociodemographic factors
Sex
Women	176	2308	54.1	1
Men	241	1962	45.9	1.77	1.46 to 2.16
Age (years)
30–39	42	1215	28.5	1
40–49	109	1287	30.1	2.58	1.81 to 3.68
50–59	175	1083	25.4	5.23	3.74 to 7.33
60–69	91	685	16.0	4.62	3.21 to 6.67
Education
Low	179	1285	30.1	1
Intermediate	151	1523	35.7	0.91	0.72 to 1.14
High	87	1462	34.2	0.59	0.45 to 0.77
Lifestyle factors
BMI (kg/m²)
<25	44	1704	39.9	1
25–29.9	172	1704	39.9	3.33	2.38 to 4.65
≥30	201	862	20.2	8.59	6.18 to 11.9
Physical activity
Low	123	1018	23.8	1
Moderate	232	2403	56.3	0.71	0.57 to 0.89
Regular vigorous training	62	849	19.9	0.56	0.41 to 0.76
Alcohol consumption
No	111	1048	24.5	1
Moderate	211	2531	59.3	0.82	0.64 to 1.03
Heavy	95	691	16.2	1.35	1.01 to 1.79
Smoking
Never	172	2139	50.1	1
Former smoker	110	872	20.4	1.37	1.07 to 1.76
Current smoker	135	1259	29.5	1.57	1.24 to 1.98
Energy intake quintiles† (kcal/day)
First (lowest)	100	853	20.0	1
Second	74	854	20.0	0.75	0.55 to 1.01
Third	75	854	20.0	0.75	0.56 to 1.01
Fourth	72	854	20.0	0.77	0.57 to 1.04
Fifth	96	855	20.0	1.05	0.79 to 1.39
AHEI quintiles‡
First (lowest)	65	780	18.3	1
Second	88	861	20.2	1.16	0.84 to 1.60
Third	100	995	23.3	1.09	0.80 to 1.49
Fourth	83	800	18.7	1.16	0.84 to 1.60
Fifth	81	834	19.5	0.95	0.69 to 1.33
Sleep duration (hours)
≤6	74	587	13.7	1
7–8	297	3239	75.9	0.77	0.59 to 0.99
≥9	46	444	10.4	0.93	0.64 to 1.34
Metabolic factors
Waist circumference (cm)
<80 cm for women or <94 cm for men	43	1531	35.9	1
≥80 cm for women or ≥94 cm for men	374	2739	64.1	4.57	3.32 to 6.29
Blood pressure
Normal	94	1901	44.5	1
Elevated	323	2369	55.5	2.07	1.62 to 2.65
Serum triglycerides (mmol/L)
<1.7	189	2993	70.1	1
≥1.7	228	1277	29.9	2.54	2.08 to 3.10
Serum HDL cholesterol (mmol/L)
≥1.29 for women or ≥1.03 for men	186	2857	66.9	1
<1.29 for women or <1.03 for men	231	1413	33.1	2.75	2.27 to 3.34
Fasting serum glucose (mmol/L)
<5.6	151	3041	71.2	1
≥5.6	266	1229	28.8	3.99	3.24 to 4.92
MetS (IDF definition)
No	100	2708	63.4	1
Yes	317	1562	36.6	5.07	4.02 to 6.39
Indicators of poor health
Severe MetS§
No	336	4073	95.4	1
Yes	81	197	4.61	4.75	3.70 to 6.10
Mental health¶
Good	314	3328	78.1	1
Poor	103	931	21.9	1.26	1.01 to 1.58
Self-perceived health
Good, quite good or mediocre	366	3980	93.3	1
Quite poor or poor	51	285	6.68	1.74	1.30 to 2.34
Osteoarthritis
No	373	4043	95.4	1
Yes	42	194	4.58	1.68	1.21 to 2.34

*Adjusted for age and sex.
†Energy intake quintile ranges (kcal): first 732–1755 for male, 593–1613 for female; second 1756–2113 for male, 1614–1946 for female ; third 2114–2478 for male, 1947–2285 for female; fourth 2479–3022 for male, 2286–2677 for female; fifth 3023–6413 for male, 2678–6495 for female.
‡AHEI quintile ranges (points): first 7–16 for male, 7–16 for female; second 17–19 for male, 17–19 for female; third 20–22 for male, 20–22 for female; fourth 23–25 for male, 23–25 for female; fifth 26–34 for male, 26–35 for female.
§Fulfillment of each MetS precondition (according to IDF definition).
¶General Health Questionnaire score >2.
AHEI, Alternate Healthy Eating Index; BMI, body mass index; HDL, high-density lipoprotein; IDF, International Diabetes Federation; MetS, metabolic syndrome; n, number of subjects in respective category.