Table 4

Comparisons of AUC, AIC, and NRI for the ARIC model* and models supplemented with the potential biomarkers

ModelAUC
(95% CI)		P value†AICNRI‡ (%)
ARIC0.836
(0.814 to 0.858)		Reference1559.4 (reference)Reference
ARIC+C40.836
(0.814 to 0.858)		0.7941561.3−3.3§
ARIC+C8-DC0.837
(0.815 to 0.859)		0.4621558.816.0
ARIC+C16-OH0.837
(0.815 to 0.859)		0.5751558.6−4.5
ARIC+alanine0.836
(0.814 to 0.858)		0.69215587.7
ARIC+glutamate/glutamine0.837
(0.815 to 0.859)		0.3981557.120.7
ARIC+glycine0.839
(0.817 to 0.861)		0.2081550.121.4
ARIC+isoleucine/leucine0.838
(0.816 to 0.860)		0.2931553.124.4
ARIC+ornithine0.837
(0.815 to 0.859)		0.4871558.85.1
ARIC+phenylalanine0.837
(0.815 to 0.859)		0.4201558.85.0
ARIC+proline0.836
(0.814 to 0.858)		0.8651561.34.9
ARIC+serine0.836
(0.814 to 0.858)		0.8531559.113.8
ARIC+tyrosine0.836
(0.814 to 0.858)		0.6481559.69.9
ARIC+valine0.837
(0.815 to 0.858)		0.6261558.114.1
ARIC+alanine to glycine ratio0.840
(0.819 to 0.862)		0.1321539.932.6
ARIC+C4+C8-DC+C16-OH+alanine+glutamate/glutamine+
glycine+isoleucine/leucine+ornithine+phenylalanine+proline
+serine+tyrosine+valine+ alanine to glycine ratio		0.847
(0.825 to 0.868)		0.0131541.945.7
ARIC+C8-DC+C16-OH+isoleucine/leucine+ornithine+proline+serine+alanine to glycine ratio0.846
(0.824 to 0.867)		0.0221530.339.8

  • *Includes age, sex, ethnicity, height, waist circumference, parental history, systolic blood pressure, fasting plasma glucose, serum triglycerides, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol.

  • †P value compares the AUC of each model with the reference model.

  • ‡The net improvement in reclassification of diabetes cases and non-cases compared with the ARIC model alone.

  • §A negative NRI value indicates the supplemented model performs worse at classification of diabetes cases and non-cases than the ARIC model alone.

  • AIC, Akaike information criterion; ARIC, Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities; AUC, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; NRI, net reclassification improvement.