Incidence of MetS in group A according to characteristics at baseline
| At risk (n) | Developing MetS (n) | P value | OR (95% CI) | Person-year | Incidence per 1000 person-years (95% CI) | |
| All samples | 1146 | 294 (25.7) | 8646 | 38 (32 to 44) | ||
| Gender | ||||||
| Men | 419 | 153 (36.5) | 2.39 (1.82 to 3.13) | 3166 | 48 (41 to 57) | |
| Women | 727 | 141 (19.4) | 0.000 | 1 | 5480 | 26 (22 to 30) |
| Age (years) | ||||||
| 18–45 | 592 | 85 (14.4) | 1 | 4452 | 19 (15 to 24) | |
| 46–60 | 361 | 114 (31.6) | 2.75 (2.00 to 3.79) | 2730 | 42 (35 to 50) | |
| 61–75 | 172 | 83 (48.3) | 5.56 (3.82 to 8.11) | 1305 | 64 (51 to 79) | |
| ≥76 | 21 | 12 (57.1) | 0.000 | 7.95 (3.25 to 19.45) | 160 | 75 (39 to 131) |
| Marital status | ||||||
| Single | 218 | 39 (17.9) | 1 | 1650 | 24 (17 to 32) | |
| Married/cohabiting | 836 | 235 (28.1) | 1.80 (1.23 to 2.62) | 6292 | 37 (33 to 42) | |
| Widower | 43 | 10 (23.3) | 1.39 (0.63 to 3.06) | 327 | 31 (15 to 56) | |
| Divorced | 49 | 10 (20.4) | 0.016 | 1.18 (0.54 to 2.56) | 378 | 27 (13 to 49) |
| Educational level | ||||||
| No studies | 62 | 34 (38.7) | 3.70 (1.98 to 6.91) | 471 | 51 (33 to 76) | |
| Elementary | 527 | 160 (30.4) | 2.55 (1.71 to 3.82) | 3973 | 40 (34 to 47) | |
| Secondary education | 316 | 75 (23.7) | 1.82 (1.17 to 2.84) | 2380 | 32 (25 to 40) | |
| University degree | 240 | 35 (14.8) | 0.000 | 1 | 1814 | 19 (13 to 27) |
| Region of the country | ||||||
| North | 135 | 26 (19.3) | 1 | 1040 | 25 (16 to 37) | |
| South | 447 | 122 (27.3) | 1.57 (0.98 to 2.53) | 3341 | 37 (30 to 44) | |
| Centre | 291 | 85 (29.2) | 1.73 (1.05 to 2.84) | 2221 | 38 (31 to 47) | |
| Northeast | 117 | 26 (22.2) | 1.20 (0.65 to 2.21) | 916 | 28 (19 to 42) | |
| East coast | 156 | 35 (22.4) | 0.135 | 1.21 (0.69 to 2.14) | 1127 | 31 (22 to 43) |
| Number of components of MetS | ||||||
| 0 | 294 | 16 (5.4) | 1 | 2219 | 7 (4 to 11) | |
| 1 | 401 | 72 (18.0) | 3.80 (2.16 to 6.69) | 3023 | 24 (19 to 30) | |
| 2 | 451 | 206 (45.7) | 0.000 | 14.61 (8.54 to 24.99) | 3404 | 61 (53 to 69) |
| Glucose regulation | ||||||
| Normal | 885 | 214 (24.2) | 1 | 6675 | 32 (28 to 37) | |
| >99 | 261 | 80 (30.7) | 0.023 | 1.39 (1.02 to 1.88) | 1971 | 41 (32 to 51) |
| HDL-chol low | ||||||
| No | 968 | 245 (25.3) | 1 | 7303 | 34 (30 to 38) | |
| Yes | 178 | 49 (27.5) | 0.296 | 1.21 (0.78 to 1.61) | 1343 | 37 (27 to 48) |
| Central obesity | ||||||
| No | 750 | 120 (16.0) | 1 | 5684 | 21 (18 to 25) | |
| Yes | 396 | 174 (43.9) | 0.000 | 4.16 (3.12 to 5.44) | 2962 | 59 (50 to 68) |
| Hypertension | ||||||
| No | 736 | 141 (19.2) | 1 | 5531 | 26 (22 to 30) | |
| Yes | 410 | 153 (37.3) | 0.000 | 2.51 (1.92 to 3.30) | 3115 | 49 (42 to 58) |
| Hyper-TG | ||||||
| No | 1088 | 266 (24.4) | 1 | 8206 | 32 (29 to 37) | |
| Yes | 58 | 28 (48.3) | 0.000 | 2.89 (1.69 to 4.92) | 440 | 64 (42 to 92) |
| BMI (kg/m2) | ||||||
| 18–<25 | 474 | 45 (9.5) | 0.000 | 1 | 3582 | 13 (9 to 17) |
| 25–<30 | 488 | 156 (32.0) | 4.48 (3.12 to 6.43) | 3683 | 42 (36 to 50) | |
| >30 | 182 | 91 (50.0) | 9.53 (6.25 to 14.55) | 1366 | 67 (54 to 82) | |
| IPAQ | ||||||
| High | 278 | 69 (24.8) | 0.933 | 1 | 2103 | 33 (26 to 42) |
| Moderate | 387 | 99 (25.6) | 1.04 (0.73 to 1.49) | 2921 | 34 (28 to 41) | |
| Low | 480 | 125 (26.0) | 1.07 (0.76 to 1.50) | 3614 | 35 (29 to 41) | |
| MET-min/week | ||||||
| >500 | 777 | 194 (25.0) | 0.241 | 1 | 3320 | 31 (25 to 39) |
| ≤500 | 369 | 100 (27.1) | 1.12 (0.84 to 1.48) | 2773 | 36 (29 to 43) | |
| MEDAS | ||||||
| <9 | 345 | 85 (24.6) | 0.330 | 1 | 2587 | 33 (26 to 41) |
| >9 | 801 | 209 (26.1) | 1.08 (0.81 to 1.45) | 6059 | 35 (30 to 40) | |
| ≤11 | 1095 | 282 (25.8) | 0.434 | 1.28 (0.58 to 2.18) | 8266 | 34 (30 to 38) |
| >11 | 51 | 12 (23.5) | 1 | 379 | 31 (16 to 55) | |
| Family history of T2DM | ||||||
| No | 528 | 134 (25.4) | 0.425 | 1 | 3944 | 34 (28 to 40) |
| Yes | 595 | 155 (26.1) | 1.04 (0.79 to 1.35) | 4476 | 35 (29 to 41) | |
Data are n (%).
BMI, body mass index; HDL-chol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol; IPAQ, International Physical Activity Questionnaire; MEDAS, Mediterranean Diet adherence screener; MET, metabolic equivalent of task; MetS, metabolic syndrome; T2DM, type 2 diabetes mellitus; TG, triglyceride.