Table 2

Effect of tax policy interventions on the prevalence of type 2 diabetes in 2040

InterventionNo. of cases (million)Difference in no. of cases (million)Prevalence
(in %)
Prevalence difference
(% points)
Prevalence ratio
Women
 Base case5.57Reference16.4ReferenceReference
 Tobacco taxes5.55−0.0216.3−0.061.00
 Meat taxes5.43−0.1316.0−0.390.98
 Waist circumference*5.49−0.0816.1−0.230.99
 Combined5.34−0.2315.7−0.670.96
Men
 Base case5.93Reference17.9ReferenceReference
 Tobacco taxes5.90−0.0317.8−0.081.00
 Meat taxes5.72−0.2117.3−0.650.96
 Waist circumference5.75−0.1817.4−0.550.97
 Combined5.52−0.4116.7−1.240.93
Overall
 Base case11.50Reference17.1ReferenceReference
 Tobacco taxes11.45−0.0517.1−0.071.00
 Meat taxes11.15−0.3516.6−0.520.97
 Waist circumference11.24−0.2616.7−0.390.98
 Combined10.86−0.6416.2−0.950.94
  • Effect of a 50% price increase of tobacco products, red meat and SSB between 2020 and 2025 on prevalence of type 2 diabetes and number of people with type 2 diabetes in Germany in 2040.

  • *The effect of changes in the waist circumference item were based on the indirect effect of red meat and SSB taxes on waist circumference.

  • SSB, sugar-sweetened beverages.