Table 3

Causal mediation analysis predicting the mediating effect of acute inflammatory response to SARS-CoV-2 (E) mediated by elevated fasting plasma glucose (M) on severe SARS-CoV-2 and lethality (Y)

Causal mediation modelOutcome
(Y)
ACMEADETotal effectProportion mediated
Model 1Severe SARS-CoV-2 infection0.032
(0.014–0.050)
0.154
(0.09–0.22)
0.186
(0.126–0.250)
17.3%
(7.5–32.0)
SARS-CoV-2 lethality1.113
(1.039–1.216)
1.484
(1.197–1.839)
1.653
(1.320–2.073)
40.25%
(36.97–44.04)
Model 2Severe SARS-CoV-2 infection0.021
(0.005–0.050)
0.126
(0.057–0.200)
0.147
(0.080–0.220)
14.7%
(8.05–22.0)
SARS-CoV-2 lethality1.096
(1.024–1.199)
1.385
(1.102–1.738)
1.518
(1.202–1.919)
41.92%
(38.45–46.01)
Model 3Severe SARS-CoV-2 infection0.032
(0.003–0.070)
0.126
(0.027–0.240)
0.158
(0.061–0.240)
20.1%
(2.74–64.0)
SARS-CoV-2 lethality1.068
(0.958–1.225)
1.323
(0.888–1.970)
1.413
(0.95–2.085)
43.03%
(37.03–50.10)
Model 4Severe SARS-CoV-2 infection0.020
(0.001–0.050)
0.110
(0.033–0.200)
0.131
(0.052–0.230)
16.0%
(0.3–44.0)
SARS-CoV-2 lethality1.126
(1.018–1.298)
1.490
(1.113-1-994)
1.678
(1.242–2.274)
40.15%
(36.34–45.04)
  • Model 1: unadjusted; model 2: adjusted by sex, age, BMI, Charlson index and HbA1c; model 3: subjects without T2DM and adjusted by sex, age, BMI and Charlson index; model 4: subjects with T2DM and adjusted by sex, age, BMI and Charlson index.

  • ACME, average causal mediation effects; ADE, average direct effects; BMI, body mass index; HbA1c, glycosylated hemoglobin; T2DM, type 2 diabetes mellitus.