Table 3

Risk factors for mortality and graft failure in multivariable analysis among US kidney transplant recipients, 2000–2018

MortalityGraft failure
HR (95% CI)HR (95% CI)
Recipient characteristics
 Primary cause of ESKD
  Non-diabetes1.0 (reference)1.0 (reference)
  T1D1.95 (1.88 to 2.03)1.24 (1.18 to 1.31)
  T2D1.65 (1.62 to 1.69)1.32 (1.28 to 1.36)
 Sex (female vs male)0.92 (0.90 to 0.94)0.98 (0.95 to 1.00)
 Age (years)1.05 (1.05 to 1.05)0.99 (0.98 to 0.99)
 Race
  Non-Hispanic white1.0 (reference)1.0 (reference)
  Non-Hispanic black0.80 (0.78 to 0.82)1.50 (1.45 to 1.54)
  Hispanic0.67 (0.65 to 0.69)0.97 (0.93 to 1.01)
  Other0.67 (0.64 to 0.69)0.85 (0.81 to 0.90)
 ESKD duration* (years)1.06 (1.05 to 1.06)1.04 (1.03 to 1.10)
 Health insurance status (%)
  Private1.0 (reference)1.0 (reference)
  Medicare1.20 (1.17 to 1.23)1.28 (1.25 to 1.32)
  Medicaid1.23 (1.16 to 1.29)1.28 (1.21 to 1.35)
  Other1.01 (0.94 to 1.10)0.94 (0.84 to 1.06)
 BMI (kg/m2)†1.00 (1.00 to 1.00)1.01 (1.01 to 1.01)
 History of smoking (yes vs no)1.11 (1.08 to 1.15)1.13 (1.09 to 1.18)
 Comorbidities
  CHF (yes vs no)1.39 (1.36 to 1.42)1.34 (1.30 to 1.38)
  Stroke (yes vs no)1.27 (1.22 to 1.32)1.10 (1.04 to 1.17)
  COPD (yes vs no)1.54 (1.48 to 1.60)1.28 (1.04 to 1.17)
  PVD (yes vs no)1.30 (1.26 to 1.35)1.13 (1.07 to 1.19)
  Cancer (yes vs no)1.20 (1.14 to 1.27)1.09 (1.00 to 1.18)
 Graft failure1.95 (1.91 to 1.98)NA
Donor characteristics
 Age (years)†1.00 (1.00 to 1.00)1.01 (1.01 to 1.01)
 Sex (male vs female)1.01 (0.99 to 1.03)1.07 (1.05 to 1.10)
 Race
  Non-Hispanic white1.0 (reference)1.0 (reference)
  Non-Hispanic black1.04 (1.01 to 1.07)1.22 (1.17 to 1.26)
  Hispanic0.94 (0.91 to 0.97)1.01 (0.97 to 1.05)
  Other0.98 (0.93 to 1.03)1.05 (0.99 to 1.13)
 Cold ischemic time (hours)†1.00 (1.00 to 1.00)1.01 (1.00 to 1.01)
 Donor risk level‡
  LD1.0 (reference)1.0 (reference)
  Low DD risk1.15 (1.10 to 1.19)1.16 (1.10 to 1.22)
  Moderate DD risk1.20 (1.16 to 1.23)1.39 (1.33 to 1.44)
  High DD risk1.36 (1.31 to 1.42)2.14 (2.03 to 2.25)
  • KDPI is estimated among DD only and is defined as low risk (KDPI=0–20), moderate risk (KDPI >20–85) or high risk (KDPI >85).

  • *ESKD duration prior to transplant date.

  • †Variables reported as HR: 1.00 (95% CI: 1.00 to 1.00) are significantly (and positively) associated with the outcome, but rounding has obscured associations.

  • ‡High-risk donor is defined using KDPI.

  • BMI, body mass index; CHF, congestive heart failure; COPD, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; DD, deceased donor; ESKD, end-stage kidney disease; KDPI, Kidney Donor Percentage Index; LD, living donor; NA, not applicable; PVD, peripheral vascular disease; T1D, type 1 diabetes; T2D, type 2 diabetes.