Incidence rates of stage 5 CKD/ESRD per 1000 person-years among the DKD cohort, and HRs (95% CIs) for associations between person characteristics and risk of stage 5 CKD/ESRD
| Variable | N | Incidence rate per 1000 person-years | Person-years | Stage 5 CKD/ ESRD | HR* (95% CI) | SHR* (95% CI) |
| Age (years) | ||||||
| <40 | 158 | 0 | 594 | 0 | – | – |
| 40–49 | 635 | 4.16 | 2402 | 10 | 1.0 (reference) | 1.0 (reference) |
| 50–64 | 2597 | 5.10 | 9404 | 48 | 0.77 (0.38 to 1.56) | 0.76 (0.36 to 1.61) |
| 65–74 | 3028 | 7.71 | 10 502 | 81 | 0.88 (0.43 to 1.80) | 0.82 (0.38 to 1.79) |
| 75–89 | 2757 | 9.45 | 7827 | 74 | 0.84 (0.40 to 1.79) | 0.68 (0.30 to 1.54) |
| Sex | ||||||
| Male | 5744 | 6.80 | 19 114 | 130 | 1.0 (reference) | 1.0 (reference) |
| Female | 3431 | 7.15 | 11 614 | 83 | 0.85 (0.63 to 1.16) | 0.90 (0.66 to 1.23) |
| BMI (kg/m2) | ||||||
| <20 | 148 | 17.75 | 394 | 7 | 1.49 (0.65 to 3.41) | 1.41 (0.64 to 3.13) |
| 20–24 | 1195 | 11.62 | 3614 | 42 | 1.0 (reference) | 1.0 (reference) |
| 25–29 | 2941 | 5.90 | 10 005 | 59 | 0.58 (0.39 to 0.88) | 0.61 (0.40 to 0.93) |
| ≥30 | 4835 | 6.30 | 16 511 | 104 | 0.64 (0.44 to 0.95) | 0.68 (0.46 to 1.00) |
| Missing | 56 | 4.92 | 203 | 1 | 0.34 (0.05 to 2.57) | 0.32 (0.05 to 2.05) |
| Townsend index (quintile) | ||||||
| 1st (least deprivation) | 1672 | 4.76 | 5464 | 26 | 1.0 (reference) | 1.0 (reference) |
| 2nd | 1844 | 6.62 | 6044 | 40 | 1.33 (0.81 to 2.20) | 1.34 (0.81 to 2.20) |
| 3rd | 1891 | 6.55 | 6415 | 42 | 1.49 (0.91 to 2.44) | 1.43 (0.87 to 2.36) |
| 4th | 1961 | 8.68 | 6682 | 58 | 1.95 (1.22 to 3.12) | 1.88 (1.18 to 2.99) |
| 5th (most deprivation) | 1545 | 7.60 | 5265 | 40 | 1.76 (1.06 to 2.93) | 1.71 (1.03 to 2.84) |
| Missing | 262 | 8.15 | 859 | 7 | 1.79 (0.77 to 4.19) | 1.84 (0.80 to 4.23) |
| Glycemic control quality† | ||||||
| Always ≤8% | 5634 | 6.80 | 18 819 | 128 | 1.0 (reference) | 1.0 (reference) |
| At some point >8% | 2933 | 6.51 | 9371 | 61 | 1.07 (0.76 to 1.50) | 1.05 (0.76 to 1.47) |
| Missing | 608 | 9.46 | 2538 | 24 | 1.30 (0.82 to 2.07) | 1.21 (0.75 to 1.95) |
| Comorbidities | ||||||
| Hypertension | 6609 | 7.49 | 22 155 | 166 | 1.21 (0.85 to 1.72) | 1.22 (0.86 to 1.74) |
| Hyperlipemia | 3154 | 5.74 | 10 623 | 61 | 0.76 (0.56 to 1.03) | 0.77 (0.57 to 1.04) |
| Heart failure | 691 | 14.30 | 1818 | 26 | 1.50 (0.93 to 2.44) | 1.38 (0.86 to 2.20) |
| IHD | 2105 | 9.03 | 6753 | 61 | 1.17 (0.84 to 1.62) | 1.14 (0.82 to 1.59) |
| Cancer | 1539 | 13.76 | 4287 | 59 | 1.99 (1.45 to 2.73) | 1.75 (1.27 to 2.42) |
| Lowest eGFR (mL/min/1.73 m2)† | ||||||
| ≥90 | 1594 | 1.51 | 5281 | 8 | 1.0 (reference) | 1.0 (reference) |
| 60–89 | 3390 | 3.57 | 11 205 | 40 | 2.19 (1.00 to 4.79) | 2.22 (0.98 to 5.02) |
| 45–59 | 2314 | 9.76 | 8404 | 82 | 5.46 (2.52 to 11.84) | 5.59 (2.47 to 12.63) |
| 30–44 | 796 | 15.68 | 2487 | 39 | 8.06 (3.55 to 18.29) | 7.74 (3.30 to 18.16) |
| 15–29 | 224 | 47.41 | 612 | 29 | 25.82 (11.09 to 60.11) | 23.30 (9.47 to 57.31) |
| <15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | – |
| Missing | 857 | 5.48 | 2740 | 15 | 3.92 (1.61 to 9.54) | 3.88 (1.55 to 9.70) |
| GP visits† | ||||||
| <12 | 1615 | 3.51 | 5986 | 21 | 1.0 (reference) | 1.0 (reference) |
| 12–23 | 4085 | 6.07 | 14 509 | 88 | 1.55 (0.95 to 2.53) | 1.54 (0.95 to 2.51) |
| 24–35 | 2067 | 9.09 | 6491 | 59 | 1.97 (1.15 to 3.38) | 1.90 (1.10 to 3.28) |
| ≥36 | 1408 | 12.03 | 3742 | 45 | 2.23 (1.22 to 4.09) | 1.95 (1.02 to 3.72) |
| Referrals to secondary care† | ||||||
| None | 1121 | 7.50 | 4536 | 34 | 1.0 (reference) | 1.0 (reference) |
| 1–6 | 5252 | 5.93 | 18 221 | 108 | 0.77 (0.51 to 1.15) | 0.75 (0.50 to 1.14) |
| ≥7 | 2802 | 8.91 | 7971 | 71 | 0.75 (0.46 to 1.21) | 0.72 (0.43 to 1.20) |
| >1 hospitalization† | 1940 | 10.21 | 5678 | 58 | 1.13 (0.80 to 1.59) | 1.09 (0.76 to 1.56) |
| Antidiabetic medication† | ||||||
| None | 1719 | 5.42 | 6088 | 33 | 1.0 (reference) | 1.0 (reference) |
| 1 class of non-insulin glucose-lowering medication | 3394 | 7.64 | 11 525 | 88 | 1.80 (1.20 to 2.72) | 1.82 (1.20 to 2.75) |
| 2 classes of non-insulin glucose-lowering medication | 2475 | 6.74 | 8460 | 57 | 1.66 (1.04 to 2.63) | 1.72 (1.07 to 2.76) |
| >2 classes of non-insulin glucose-lowering medication | 896 | 6.36 | 2673 | 17 | 2.10 (1.11 to 3.98) | 2.14 (1.14 to 4.02) |
| Insulin | 691 | 9.08 | 1982 | 18 | 2.00 (1.06 to 3.75) | 1.96 (1.07 to 3.60) |
| Other medication† | ||||||
| ACEI/ARB | 6978 | 7.28 | 23 635 | 172 | 1.06 (0.73 to 1.53) | 1.12 (0.77 to 1.62) |
| MRA | 370 | 13.75 | 873 | 12 | 0.94 (0.49 to 1.81) | 0.85 (0.43 to 1.65) |
| Time from diabetes diagnosis to DKD (years) | ||||||
| 0–1 | 285 | 7.13 | 1263 | 9 | 1.0 (reference) | 1.0 (reference) |
| 1–2 | 811 | 7.00 | 3428 | 24 | 0.86 (0.40 to 1.89) | 0.89 (0.41 to 1.96) |
| 2–3 | 1029 | 8.19 | 4520 | 37 | 0.92 (0.43 to 1.95) | 0.96 (0.46 to 2.02) |
| 3–4 | 1117 | 7.46 | 4559 | 34 | 0.77 (0.36 to 1.66) | 0.75 (0.35 to 1.58) |
| 4–5 | 1060 | 6.57 | 4110 | 27 | 0.66 (0.30 to 1.45) | 0.64 (0.29 to 1.42) |
| >5 | 4873 | 6.38 | 12 847 | 82 | 0.66 (0.31 to 1.38) | 0.61 (0.30 to 1.25) |
*Adjusted for all the other variables in the table.
†In the year before study entry.
ACEI, ACE inhibitor; ARB, angiotensin receptor blocker; BMI, body mass index; CKD, chronic kidney disease; DKD, diabetic kidney disease; eGFR, estimated glomerular filtration rate; ESRD, end-stage renal disease; GP, general practitioner; IHD, ischemic heart disease; MRA, mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist; SHR, subdistribution HR.