Table 2

Results on hold-out test set

XGBRFCDC
Any-stage DKD
 AUROC0.7500.7480.634
 Sensitivity0.7000.7000.633
 Specificity0.6700.6620.560
 LR+2.1202.0711.440
 LR−0.4470.4530.655
 DOR4.7384.5752.197
DKD stages 3–5
 AUROC0.8250.8230.672
 Sensitivity0.7500.7500.637
 Specificity0.7420.7390.614
 LR+2.9062.8701.652
 LR−0.3360.3380.591
 DOR8.6388.4922.794
DKD stages 4–5
 AUROC0.8300.8210.617
 Sensitivity0.7510.7510.581
 Specificity0.7390.7120.581
 LR+2.8762.6061.387
 LR−0.3370.3490.721
 DOR8.5447.4611.923
  • Comparison of XGB, RF and the CDC DKD performance includes AUROC, sensitivity, specificity, LR+ and LR‒, and DOR. Prediction of DKD within 5 years following T2DM diagnosis is divided into any-stage DKD, DKD stages 3–5 and DKD stages 4–5.

  • AUROC, area under the receiver operating characteristic; CDC, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; DKD, diabetic kidney disease; DOR, diagnostic OR; LR+, positive likelihood ratio; LR−, negative likelihood ratio; RF, random forest; T2DM, type 2 diabetes mellitus; XGB, gradient boosted tree.