Results on external validation set
XGB | RF | CDC | |
Any-stage DKD | |||
AUROC | 0.769 | 0.769 | 0.643 |
Sensitivity | 0.761 | 0.758 | 0.651 |
Specificity | 0.622 | 0.619 | 0.573 |
LR+ | 2.015 | 1.989 | 1.522 |
LR− | 0.384 | 0.391 | 0.610 |
DOR | 5.251 | 5.089 | 2.496 |
DKD stages 3–5 | |||
AUROC | 0.831 | 0.832 | 0.676 |
Sensitivity | 0.807 | 0.804 | 0.640 |
Specificity | 0.690 | 0.692 | 0.623 |
LR+ | 2.605 | 2.608 | 1.697 |
LR− | 0.279 | 0.283 | 0.578 |
DOR | 9.322 | 9.215 | 2.937 |
DKD stages 4–5 | |||
AUROC | 0.826 | 0.827 | 0.620 |
Sensitivity | 0.819 | 0.826 | 0.608 |
Specificity | 0.664 | 0.643 | 0.576 |
LR+ | 2.438 | 2.313 | 1.436 |
LR− | 0.273 | 0.270 | 0.680 |
DOR | 8.933 | 8.555 | 2.111 |
Comparison of XGB, RF and the CDC DKD performance includes AUROC, sensitivity, specificity, LR+ and LR‒, DOR, and threshold. Prediction of DKD within 5 years following T2DM diagnosis is divided into any-stage DKD, DKD stages 3–5 and DKD stages 4–5.
AUROC, area under the receiver operating characteristic; CDC, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; DKD, diabetic kidney disease; DOR, diagnostic OR; LR−, negative likelihood ratio; LR+, positive likelihood ratio; RF, random forest; T2DM, type 2 diabetes mellitus; XGB, gradient boosted tree.