Table 3

Results on external validation set

XGBRFCDC
Any-stage DKD
 AUROC0.7690.7690.643
 Sensitivity0.7610.7580.651
 Specificity0.6220.6190.573
 LR+2.0151.9891.522
 LR−0.3840.3910.610
 DOR5.2515.0892.496
DKD stages 3–5
 AUROC0.8310.8320.676
 Sensitivity0.8070.8040.640
 Specificity0.6900.6920.623
 LR+2.6052.6081.697
 LR−0.2790.2830.578
 DOR9.3229.2152.937
DKD stages 4–5
 AUROC0.8260.8270.620
 Sensitivity0.8190.8260.608
 Specificity0.6640.6430.576
 LR+2.4382.3131.436
 LR−0.2730.2700.680
 DOR8.9338.5552.111
  • Comparison of XGB, RF and the CDC DKD performance includes AUROC, sensitivity, specificity, LR+ and LR‒, DOR, and threshold. Prediction of DKD within 5 years following T2DM diagnosis is divided into any-stage DKD, DKD stages 3–5 and DKD stages 4–5.

  • AUROC, area under the receiver operating characteristic; CDC, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; DKD, diabetic kidney disease; DOR, diagnostic OR; LR−, negative likelihood ratio; LR+, positive likelihood ratio; RF, random forest; T2DM, type 2 diabetes mellitus; XGB, gradient boosted tree.