Definition 1: HbA1c ≥48 mmol/mol (6.5%) | Definition 2: glucose-lowering treatment initiation | |||||
AUCt (%) | Brier score (%) | IPA | AUCt (%) | Brier score (%) | IPA | |
Main model | 72.7 (71.2–74.3) | 10.7 (8.8–12.6) | 18.2 | 79.4 (77.7–81.0) | 7.5 (5.9–9.1) | 17.1 |
Minimum model | 68.2 (66.7–69.7) | 12.8 (10.7–14.8) | 2.8 | 79.8 (78.1–81.4) | 8.6 (6.8–10.5) | 4.6 |
The models were validated (using the validation sample) for both definitions of type 2 diabetes. High AUCt values indicate good discrimination. Low Brier scores indicate good calibration. High IPA indicates good average performance.
The main model for HbA1c ≥48 mmol/mol (6.5%) included baseline HbA1c, age, sex, body mass index (BMI), treated hypertension, pre-existing pancreatic disease, absence of cancer, unhealthy diet, doctor’s advice to lose weight or change dietary habits, self-reported lack of anyone to talk to, and good self-rated health. The main model for glucose-lowering treatment initiation included baseline HbA1c, age, sex, BMI, and doctor’s advice to lose weight or change dietary habits.
AUCt, time-dependent area under the curve; IPA, index of prediction accuracy.