Cumulative incidence rates per 100 person-years for development of sight-threatening DR in at least one eye by length of follow-up with 95% CIs in parenthesis
| Characteristic | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | Year 10 |
| Overall | 0.86 (0.82 to 0.90) | 1.48 (1.43 to 1.54) | 1.66 (1.61 to 1.72) | 1.78 (1.73 to 1.84) | 1.89 (1.83 to 1.95) | 2.21 (2.15 to 2.28) |
| Age group (years) | ||||||
| <45 | 0.90 (0.81 to 0.99) | 1.59 (1.47 to 1.72) | 1.82 (1.69 to 1.95) | 2.02 (1.88 to 2.15) | 2.20 (2.05 to 2.34) | 2.84 (2.68 to 3.01) |
| 45 to <55 | 0.86 (0.78 to 0.95) | 1.54 (1.43 to 1.66) | 1.76 (1.64 to 1.88) | 1.86 (1.73 to 1.98) | 2.01 (1.88 to 2.13) | 2.42 (2.28 to 2.55) |
| 55 to <65 | 0.85 (0.77 to 0.93) | 1.42 (1.31 to 1.52) | 1.57 (1.46 to 1.69) | 1.68 (1.56 to 1.79) | 1.73 (1.61 to 1.84) | 1.96 (1.84 to 2.09) |
| 65 and over | 0.84 (0.77 to 0.91) | 1.41 (1.32 to 1.51) | 1.55 (1.46 to 1.65) | 1.66 (1.56 to 1.76) | 1.72 (1.62 to 1.83) | 1.87 (1.76 to 1.98) |
| Sex | ||||||
| Female | 0.78 (0.72 to 0.84) | 1.36 (1.28 to 1.43) | 1.55 (1.47 to 1.63) | 1.68 (1.59 to 1.76) | 1.77 (1.68 to 1.85) | 2.08 (1.98 to 2.17) |
| Male | 0.93 (0.87 to 0.99) | 1.59 (1.51 to 1.67) | 1.76 (1.68 to 1.84) | 1.88 (1.80 to 1.96) | 1.99 (1.91 to 2.08) | 2.34 (2.25 to 2.43) |
| Ethnicity | ||||||
| White | 0.76 (0.69 to 0.82) | 1.25 (1.17 to 1.33) | 1.40 (1.31 to 1.49) | 1.50 (1.42 to 1.59) | 1.56 (1.47 to 1.65) | 1.77 (1.68 to 1.87) |
| South Asian | 0.85 (0.78 to 0.92) | 1.53 (1.44 to 1.62) | 1.71 (1.61 to 1.80) | 1.85 (1.75 to 1.95) | 1.99 (1.88 to 2.09) | 2.44 (2.32 to 2.55) |
| Black | 1.08 (0.97 to 1.19) | 1.87 (1.72 to 2.02) | 2.09 (1.93 to 2.25) | 2.19 (2.03 to 2.36) | 2.32 (2.15 to 2.49) | 2.68 (2.50 to 2.86) |
| Any other Asian | 0.84 (0.67 to 1.01) | 1.52 (1.29 to 1.75) | 1.68 (1.44 to 1.92) | 1.86 (1.61 to 2.12) | 2.02 (1.76 to 2.28) | 2.24 (1.97 to 2.52) |
| Other | 1.07 (0.80 to 1.34) | 1.42 (1.11 to 1.72) | 1.70 (1.37 to 2.04) | 1.79 (1.45 to 2.14) | 1.90 (1.55 to 2.26) | 2.33 (1.94 to 2.71) |
| Mixed | 0.75 (0.41 to 1.09) | 1.33 (0.88 to 1.78) | 1.70 (1.19 to 2.21) | 1.94 (1.40 to 2.49) | 2.14 (1.57 to 2.71) | 2.41 (1.81 to 3.02) |
| Chinese | 1.16 (0.59 to 1.73) | 1.62 (0.95 to 2.29) | 1.81 (1.10 to 2.52) | 1.73 (1.04 to 2.43) | 1.69 (1.00 to 2.38) | 1.65 (0.97 to 2.33) |
| Unknown | 0.91 (0.57 to 1.26) | 2.09 (1.57 to 2.60) | 2.51 (1.95 to 3.07) | 2.59 (2.02 to 3.16) | 2.64 (2.07 to 3.22) | 2.61 (2.03 to 3.18) |
| Baseline DR grade | ||||||
| No retinopathy | 0.21 (0.19 to 0.23) | 0.44 (0.41 to 0.48) | 0.56 (0.52 to 0.59) | 0.66 (0.62 to 0.70) | 0.79 (0.75 to 0.84) | 1.20 (1.15 to 1.26) |
| Retinopathy in one eye | 1.23 (1.10 to 1.37) | 2.37 (2.18 to 2.56) | 2.78 (2.58 to 2.99) | 3.16 (2.94 to 3.37) | 3.33 (3.11 to 3.55) | 3.80 (3.56 to 4.03) |
| Retinopathy in both eyes | 6.04 (5.69 to 6.39) | 9.81 (9.37 to 10.26) | 10.61 (10.15 to 11.06) | 10.78 (10.32 to 11.24) | 10.77 (10.31 to 11.23) | 10.43 (9.98 to 10.88) |
DR, diabetic retinopathy.