Examining trends in type 2 diabetes incidence, prevalence and mortality in the UK between 2004 and 2014

Aims: Contemporary data describing type 2 diabetes prevalence, incidence and mortality are limited. We aimed to (1) estimate annual incidence and prevalence rates of type 2 diabetes in the UK between 2004 and 2014, (2) examine relationships between observed rates with age, gender, socio-economic status and geographic region, and (3) assess how temporal changes in incidence and all-cause mortality rates influence changes in prevalence.

Methods: Type 2 diabetes patients aged ≥16 years between January 2004 and December 2014 were identified using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). Up to 5 individuals without diabetes were matched to diabetes patients based on age, gender and the general practice. Annual incidence, prevalence and mortality rates were calculated per 10 000 person-years at risk (95% CI). Survival models compared mortality rates in patients with and without type 2 diabetes.

Results: Prevalence rates of type 2 diabetes increased from 3.21% (3.19; 3.22) in 2004 to 5.26% (5.24; 5.29) in 2014. Incidence rates remained stable, overall, throughout the study period. Higher incidence and prevalence rates were related to male gender and deprivation. Individuals with type 2 diabetes were associated with higher risk of mortality (Hazard ratio 1.26 [1.20; 1.32]). Mortality rates declined in patients with and without diabetes throughout the study period. The incidence and prevalence of type 2 diabetes in patients aged 16 to 34 years increased over time.

Conclusions: The rising prevalence of type 2 diabetes in the UK over the last decade is probably explained by patients living longer rather than by increasing incidence of type 2 diabetes.